In randomized trials involving multiple treatments, bivariate survival outcomes present significant analytical challenges for making decisions. This paper addresses the problem of deriving optimal individualized treatment rules to maximize the joint survival probability beyond fixed time points $(t_1, t_2)$ through deep neural networks, while accounting for right censoring. We propose a novel approach that models treatment rules via stochastic policies, coupling marginal accelerated failure time models via link function to capture bivariate dependence. To enhance robustness and effectiveness of decision making, we introduce an adaptive prediction-powered method that leverages auxiliary predictions from machine learning models.

Estimating optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) via outcome weighted learning (OWL) often relies on observed rewards that are noisy or optimistic proxies for the true latent utility. Ignoring this reward uncertainty leads to the selection of policies with inflated apparent performance, yet existing OWL frameworks lack the finite-sample guarantees required to systematically embed such uncertainty into the learning objective. To address this issue, we propose PAC-Bayesian Reward-Certified Outcome Weighted Learning (PROWL). Given a one-sided uncertainty certificate, PROWL constructs a conservative reward and a strictly policy-dependent lower bound on the true expected value. Theoretically, we prove an exact certified reduction that transforms robust policy learning into a unified, split-free cost-sensitive classification task. This formulation enables the derivation of a nonasymptotic PAC-Bayes lower bound for randomized ITRs, where we establish that the optimal posterior maximizing this bound is exactly characterized by a general Bayes update. To overcome the learning-rate selection problem inherent in generalized Bayesian inference, we introduce a fully automated, bounds-based calibration procedure, coupled with a Fisher-consistent certified hinge surrogate for efficient optimization. Our experiments demonstrate that PROWL achieves improvements in estimating robust, high-value treatment regimes under severe reward uncertainty compared to standard methods for ITR estimation.

In this paper, we extend the transfer learning classification framework from regression function-based methods to decision rules. We propose a novel methodology for modeling posterior drift through Bayes decision rules. By exploiting the geometric transformation of the Bayes decision boundary, our method reformulates the problem as a low-dimensional empirical risk minimization problem. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish the consistency of our estimators and derive the risk bounds. Moreover, we illustrate the broad applicability of our method by adapting it to the estimation of optimal individualized treatment rules. Extensive simulation studies and analyses of real-world data further demonstrate both superior performance and robustness of our approach.

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) have gained significant attention due to their wide-ranging applications in fields such as precision medicine, ridesharing, and advertising recommendations. However, when ITRs are influenced by sensitive attributes such as race, gender, or age, they can lead to outcomes where certain groups are unfairly advantaged or disadvantaged. To address this gap, we propose a flexible approach based on the optimal transport theory, which is capable of transforming any optimal ITR into a fair ITR that ensures demographic parity. Recognizing the potential loss of value under fairness constraints, we introduce an ``improved trade-off ITR," designed to balance value optimization and fairness while accommodating varying levels of fairness through parameter adjustment. To maximize the value of the improved trade-off ITR under specific fairness levels, we propose a smoothed fairness constraint for estimating the adjustable parameter. Additionally, we establish a theoretical upper bound on the value loss for the improved trade-off ITR. We demonstrate performance of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies and application to the Next 36 entrepreneurial program dataset.

Individualized treatment rules/recommendations (ITRs) aim to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatments to the characteristics of each individual. However, when there are many treatment groups, existing methods face significant challenges due to data sparsity within treatment groups and highly unbalanced covariate distributions across groups. To address these challenges, we propose a novel calibration-weighted treatment fusion procedure that robustly balances covariates across treatment groups and fuses similar treatments using a penalized working model. The fusion procedure ensures the recovery of latent treatment group structures when either the calibration model or the outcome model is correctly specified. In the fused treatment space, practitioners can seamlessly apply state-of-the-art ITR learning methods with the flexibility to utilize a subset of covariates, thereby achieving robustness while addressing practical concerns such as fairness. We establish theoretical guarantees, including consistency, the oracle property of treatment fusion, and regret bounds when integrated with multi-armed ITR learning methods such as policy trees. Simulation studies show superior group recovery and policy value compared to existing approaches. We illustrate the practical utility of our method using a nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database containing data from patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia and Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma.

Estimating individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is fundamental in causal inference, particularly for precision medicine applications. Traditional ITR estimation methods rely on inverse probability weighting (IPW) to address confounding factors and L_{1} -penalization for simplicity and interpretability. However, IPW can introduce statistical bias without precise propensity score modeling, while L_1 -penalization makes the objective non-smooth, leading to computational bias and requiring subgradient methods. In this paper, we propose a unified ITR estimation framework formulated as a constrained, weighted, and smooth convex optimization problem. The optimal ITR can be robustly and effectively computed by projected gradient descent.